LAS VEGAS, NV – What has transpired on MTM every Sunday of the 2012 NFL season has been pretty damn special, according to research. Finding NFL Handicappers who win at a 55-60% – which is considered successful – takes some effort. But try finding NFL Picks with a 67% success rate who also documents the advice! Yeah, that’s right. I’m talkin’ about my sh*t… my 41-20 record is just that and if you know somebody who likes to throw a dollar on NFL football, direct them to our site.
Having passed on yesterday’s playoff action, there is one game today that more than piques my interest. At 1:00 the Baltimore Ravens are hosting the Indianapolis Colts, where the visiting underdogs are getting more than one handful of points – six to be exact – despite having a better record (11-5 vs. 10-6). The Colts also come into the game winning five of their last six, while the Ravens conversely managed to lose four of five. Andrew Luck has also proven to be unflappable and looks nothing like a rookie, registering a league-leading number of 4th quarter comebacks.
Home teams in the NFL playoffs almost always have a decided advantage and Las Vegas sets the line accordingly but this point-spread should be no higher than 4 ½. Odds-makers always have reasons for setting a line where they do—simply put this is their livelihood and know more based upon information giving the house a tremendous edge. For a team enjoying a 6-2 home record, the Ravens were 3-5 against the spread and an indication signifying difficulty covering a higher number. Perhaps some of the same reasons why I’m selecting the Ravens -6 are shared by Vegas. And here they are:
1) Ravens newest Offensive Coordinator Jim Caldwell is less than a year removed from being fired as Head Coach by today’s opponent. Who better to attack his old team’s defensive personnel?
2) Emotions are to be high for both teams – Chuck Pagano on Indy’s sideline but Ray Lewis on the field for the Ravens.
3) Ray Rice is to have a monster game against the fourth worst run defense in the league – giving up the most 20+ and 40+ yard gains ,while creating a league-low four fumbles.
4) The QB/Coach connection: Joe Flacco has won at least one playoff game in each of his first four years and was a drop away from last year’s AFC Championship game. Jim Harbaugh trumps the other sideline. Who do the Colts listen to now? Pagano or Arians?
Bottom Line: The Colts magic carpet ride comes to a crash-lands today because the Ravens have more defense than the Horseshoes.
Ravens -6 ½ and OVER 46 ½.
The Public Professor tomorrow…
Filed in: Cheesy Bruin