After 10 weeks and a bye forced upon me by Hurricane Sandy, my NFL Picks record stands at 19-10 (65%). That’s pretty solid but I’m ticked about a sub-par 2-2 record in Week 10. To sooth any angst – and to make your experience more relaxing as you ponder what to gamble – I’ve included some easy-listening background music. Click a video at any time; it’s all Music To The Wallet:
It’s not often, almost never to be precise, where laying 16 points with a favorite is a sound investment, unless we’re talking college football (as Dr. Diz will tell you) – or basketball. However, the Texans find themselves thus against the downright awful Jacksonville Jaguars. Frustration clearly has set in if you witnessed Jags Head Coach Mike Mularkey lose his head(set) during last Thursday night’s televised game over a non-reviewed touchdown play. If he’s not aware by now, you throw the red flag in your pocket and not everything in your two hands. Dreadful play and behavior aside, how the hell did this team keep things competitive against Green Bay several weeks ago? The Texans need little write up here and look like the class of the NFL – if Matt Schaub remains upright. No Maurice James-Drew, no contest. Gimme a “T” for Texans… Gimme a Texan win by 17.
Cincinnati travels to Kansas City for, if nothing else, a colorful match-up of orange, black, red, and yellow. For those of you old enough to remember 1970’s one-hit wonder Chris Rea, maybe I’m a Fool but I think it’s OVER… Over 43 ½ and here’s why:
1) The perception is the Chiefs are a solid UNDER bet due to inept offense and failure to defensively make up for “lost points.”
2) KC is a 3-1 OVER wager at home thus far.
3) On the road and thanks to an offense desperate to overcome a leaky defense, Cincy is a 3-1 OVER bet.
For an unbeaten team, as the Falcons were before last week’s loss to the Saints, they weren’t getting the respect an 8-0 team normally garners from Vegas. There were games against lesser opponents where Atlanta found themselves as only slight favorites. Smart gamblers see this and take the points against the Falcons when the line is better than a touchdown. The Cardinals fly in from Arizona getting a ten-spot. This is based on A) Their travel, B) The 1:00 start time. C) Not being able to get out of their own way on offense. And D) Atlanta’s fall from the unbeaten ranks. The Cards defense is stout and the Falcons have problems putting teams away. All of the above makes Arizona a sound choice at +10.
The UNDER selection this week is a roll of the dice. The Saint and Raiders often fail to read the opponent’s offensive plays, which is why the TOTAL is a whopping 55. The line could be 65 with Drew Brees firing on all cylinders and with host Oakland fresh off of yielding a billion points in their last two. However, I’m banking on New Orleans running the ball more and the Raiders to show some pride on defense so they don’t get embarrassed again. One (Raider) Nation UNDER a Groove.