MAUI, HI – For those of you paying attention to my gambling suggestions each week, I’m off to a rather good start for one reason and one reason only: I don’t have two nickels to rub together and can’t “Mush” myself by actually betting. But hopefully gamblers are taking advantage of my success and yes, I’ll except any and all invitations for free booze in exchange.
Okay… I normally stay away from teams heavily wagered upon week in and week out. Why? Gambling 101 professes the point-spread is artificially enhanced – like MSG in your Chinese food. As a result, you wind up pissing points away to “The Man” due to the public’s perception of teams like the Patriots, who are my “Favorite of the Week.” After consecutive last-second defeats to the Cardinals (as double-digit faves) and Ravens (as field-goal dogs), the 1-2 Patriots can ill afford looking past any opponent until they right the ship. The Pats are favored a hair more than a field goal versus a division opponent in the host Bills. That should have some bettors begging off and that’s good enough for me to now pick an angry Bill Belichik team. The Bills had no problems scoring points in both of last year’s games but gave up twice as many. With a physically ailing running game, the lack of a true wide-out opposite Stevie Johnson and New England’s desperation, New England -3 ½ . Apologies to buffalobilly84 and correspondent DJ Eberle, whose picks you can see by clicking this.
As far as underdogs go, one is poised to bark loudly in its home kennel based more upon the opponent than their own merit. The match between Cincinnati at Jacksonville (my best friends last week), has a “Total” of 43. That’s low considering potent Cincinnati getting caught up in shootouts because of a suspect defense. The over/under should be at least three points higher because of the Bengals’ play in the early going. The Jags and Maurice James-Drew found their own offensive feet last week and seem ready for some ball control in this cat-fight. Odds-makers have tipped their hat to an under and I like the slight home underdog in a close-to-the-vest contest Jaguars +1 ½. And… As stated above, Cincinnati/Jacksonville (43) is also my UNDER.
My over selections (0-2) are a blemish to my overall record (6-3) so far. But that’s going to change with the Washington/Tampa Bay game. Hopefully the offensene will flow in this one. The Redskins have proven to be football’s version of the Doug Moe 1980’s Denver Nuggets; they have fun padding their stats on the score sheet but don’t play a lick of defense. First to 40 points, have to win by two buckets… OVER 47 ½!
About that Chinese food…