MARLBORO, NY– As much as I’d like to think I’m Nostradamus when it comes to handicapping NFL games, I am only human after all… as a 1-3 week saw the efficiency rate plummet to an unheard of 55% (24-20). If you are a regular you expect something in the 60-65% out of my efforts against the Vegas numbers. I’m at a loss for words and am looking for an explanation to these woes but give you four more picks in the meantime.
FAVORITE: Okay. This one’s a head-scratcher, as the point spread just doesn’t make sense–and you know by now to eschew logic in these situations because Las Vegas knows a lot more than we do. The Houston Texans, a perfect 5-0 at home, host the visiting San Diego Chargers who are a lousy 1-4 on the road. The Bolts are also travelling eastward for the dreaded 1:00 start. All this should add up to the Texans being about a 4-point favorite but they are the underdog. The ‘wiseguys’ are enticing us to take the Texans here but I’ve seen this happen too many times over the years as Captain Obvious takes the fall. Gimme Philip Rivers and the Chargers to get us the moolah. San Diego (-1.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS
UNDERDOG: The Atlanta Falcons are clearly the new New Orleans Saints. Fantasy football players love the high-scoring games the Falcons always seem to find themselves courtesy of a high octane offense and a non-existent defense. I’ve seen plenty of offenses connect on fifteen-yard, middle-of-the-field pass routes against the Dirty Birds. Carson Palmer has been kept under wraps this year by defenses covering the top part of the field and taking away the deep routes the Cards love to run. If patient today, the yards will come in chunks at a time and therefore I love Arizona getting the handful of points. Arizona (+6) over ATLANTA
OVER: Today’s “over” selection is strictly a guess. I really did have a difficult time finding one with any kind of certainty but this will have to do. The only analysis I can provide in favor of cashing in on this bet is the total being the lowest handicap on the board at 39. A special teams or a defensive touchdown (a distinct possibility with these two teams) might turn this into a victory. On the flip side, should there be more than four field goals in this one, we are toast. Kansas City/DENVER OVER 39
UNDER: From what I have seen lately out of the Carolina Panthers is a defense that is rounding into form. The Chefs… Chiefs game a few weeks back was a fluke loss in which the defense performed very well and last week it allowed a back door cover in the game’s waning moments. The Raiders have been one of the NFL’s more potent offenses this year and seem to score a lot of late points themselves and turn defeat into victory. I see a tight contest here, one where the game’s pace is slowed to the point where neither QB or offense takes over the game. Carolina/OAKLAND UNDER 50
That’s it. Please comment below and come back tomorrow for Delicious DJ Eberle, who can spin a Buffalo tune Mitt Romney can spin heads, shaking The Donald’s hand! And please follow us on Twitter – @CheesyBruin & @MeetTheMatts and like our Facebook page, Meet The Matts.
