BLOOMINGBURG, NY – It’s here. The final game of the NFL 2019 season kicks off a little past 6:30 this evening. It’s hard to believe there’s been 54 of these things. It’s become the biggest event in American team sports, so much in fact that marketing geniuses have trademarked the name to the point of The Big Game being a curse word. I’ll do my best in complying by not mentioning the SB in its full form.
Readers come here on football Sundays for gambling advice and in this post season Cheesy Bruin’s Free NFL Picks are 10-2. Whether you still have a bookie or have gone 21st century and live in Jersey, I’m here to serve your needs. How is it Albany politicians are somehow dragging their feet in legalizing sports gambling in the Empire State? I’m sure there’s a little trepidation after NY failed miserably running Off Track Betting, which was a staple in my teen years. The “house” never loses – unless you are New York state. SMDH and I don’t use these text abbreviations at all. But I digress.
In breaking down the gambling history of the NFL’s curtain call, my research has come up with the following, if you’re so inclined:
FAVORITES have covered the Las Vegas number 27 times with only one “push.”
UNDERDOGS got the money on 25 occasions but won outright in two-thirds of those and more than a handful were long-shots.
In today’s game all of this is really moot with the point-spread at one and where you’re basically being asked to pick the winner. There are plenty of trend bettors out there and here’s the rub for today:
UNDERDOGS (San Francisco) are 12-5 against the spread in the last seventeen. That’s 71% and might be hard to overlook today in such an even match-up.
OVER/UNDER (or the “total” as they are often called), have seen equal distribution without a current trend. 27 contests have gone OVER with 25 to the UNDER.
The very first championship game didn’t have gambling on total points scored. Public perception and what oddsmakers do is a science. These guys are very good at what they do. Kansas City plays fast in high flying, fast break offensive football so you automatically think OVER is the play in their games but they were an even split in the regular season at 8/8 on the total. The 49ers for good measure were the same 8/8 even with their top ranked defense.
The points-preads: It’s almost unheard of when you have two weeks of betting all across this country and abroad to not see the side and/or total move. Opening lines were KC -1.5 and 54. As of this writing the numbers sit a -1 and 54. What does this mean? It takes a lot of money to swing the line one way or another so there has to be even money coming in on all prospects for the numbers to remain stagnant.
The Picks:
Over the past two weeks I’ve been saying Chiefs but now I’m starting to like the Niners for some reason and is nothing other than a gut feeling. I’m not even certain of the side today. It’s that close. The play of the day with zero concern is the UNDER 54! The game may be close to the handicap but it WILL go under. I’d put a buck or two on Travis Kelce for MVP at those odds (16-1).
Enjoy the food, drink, commercials, halftime entertainment, and company today!
