Location Classified: As the deadly Cononavirus ravages our species, or as the whole world overreacts to a wimpy pseudo flu, depending on who you ask, we here at MTM must soldier on. With the draft about 45 days away, my eyes are turning to football. The NFL’s QB Carousel is about to be swinging like Short Matt and his wife on New Year’s Eve. Let’s see if we can figure out where the free agent and rookie QBs will end up. Buckle up, we might have a record number of new starting QBs.
The Vets
There is plenty of talent on the free agent QB market, including The Goat, a borderline HOFer, and plenty of other intriguing talent. Some teams are ready to move on from long-term signal callers and others are getting close. There are plenty of big-named nomads still looking for a home.
Tom Brady
Six lousy championships? Please. The guy was average last season. Jarrett Stidham is ready!
In a sane world, Brady would be signed and playing for the Patriots as long as he wants. It’s not like they have a stud youngster behind him losing shelf life. Brady is the alpha dog of this crew and the dominoes will start to fall once he signs.
Vegas still favors him to stay put, but not by much (-125). A bet on anyone other than Brady is one step below a pick ‘em (+105). Could he really leave? The next favored teams are the Titans (+550), Raiders (+650), LA Chargers (+750), Giants (+1000), and Bucs (+1900).
Why are the Giants on this list? Did Gettleman fall out of full blown love with Daniel Jones? And how would you feel if you were Ryan Tannehill? The guy stepped in and took them from Dumpsville to one half from the Super Bowl and still might get the #slambamthankyoumaam.
How about the Raiders? The team has always had a proclivity to sign other teams’ superstars when they have less than one iPhone bar left on their careers.
You know Tom and Bill both want to prove they were driving the bus and can do it without the other guy. Brady is from the Bay Area and if you watched Hard Knocks, you know Gruden isn’t that crazy about Carr. It’s not hard to picture Brady in the black and silver.
It seems like there is plenty of smoke in New England. Something has got to be burning. Maybe he’ll move on.
Destination: Raiders
Phillip Rivers
The amount of interest in Rivers is indicative of the difficulty of finding capable NFL QBs. My view on Rivers is that he usually plays just good enough to lose. If you need two TDs, he’ll get you one and then down to the other team’s 15-yard line. He ranks 7th on the active list behind Breezy, TB12, Roethy, Ryan, Eli, and Stafford in game winning drives, which isn’t that good. And he can’t move at all, so you’ll need a great offensive line and some weapons.
The favorites to land him are the Bucs (+150) and Colts (+200), with the Panthers, Raiders, and Dolphins as dark horses. The Colts make sense, with a good O-line, but the Bucs have two great WRs. Rivers seems like the kind of guy who would choose the potential for a big stats year over a chance to win the big one. Maybe I’m wrong.
Wherever he goes, you can be sure he will bring his family. With eight kids aged three to sixteen, we know the man can’t be far from the wife for long. And with the last being one being over three now, expect a baby in the first year with his new team.
Verdict: Tampa Bay
Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill had a freaking 117.5 passer rating in 2019 and nearly took his team to Miami. But instead of putting a ring on it, they’re out at the club flirting with a a QB cougar. Wouldn’t it be fun if Tannehill and Brady switched spots? It would, but I don’t think he’s going anywhere.
Verdict: Tennessee
Jameis Winston
Winston got lasik eye surgery a few weeks ago. For a guy with 30 interceptions last season, the joke here is too easy. “He was wide open!” “Who, the safety?” If you ignore the interceptions (more than Tom Brady had in the last four seasons, 2016-2019), it was a season for the ages for Jameis.
Can they fix him? The word is he’ll be back in Tampa somehow, maybe they’ll tag him. But I already picked Rivers to go there, so I have to do something else.
The favorites are Tampa (-150), Miami (+500) and Chicago (+600). Something about the Bears seems logical. They are surely looking for more big plays in their offense and maybe Matt Nagy thinks he can fix the turnover issue.
Verdict: Da Bears
Teddy Bridgewater
Though Teddy didn’t really light it up statistically, he upped his stock by going 5-0 when Brees was out. The Saints can’t keep him with Brees coming back and Taysum Hill demanding to play QB in the future.
The favorites to land him are the Panthers ($200) and Colts (+300), with the Chargers, Bucs, Broncos, Bears, and Pats rounding out the list. The Pats seem like a sneaky good dart throw here, if Brady leaves.
Bridgewater is the perfect QB for Belichick to prove he can win without Brady. He has enough talent to win, but not enough overshadow the credit Billy would get if he could pull off a 7th title without Brady. Belly could spend the rest of his days in a hoodie under a tree in Nantucket, his place as The Goat undeniable.
But the Colts call out to me here. They want to run the ball and play D with a QB who doesn’t make a lot of mistakes.
Verdict: Indianapolis
The Rest
Though not technically a free agent, Andy Dalton is another guy you could see going to the Pats if Tom leaves. Dak is not going anywhere. And I think Cam will play in Carolina for one more year.
The Rooks
It’s a deep draft for rookie QBs as well, with Burrow, Tua, Herbert, and now Justin Love. There are plenty of teams with a bare cupboard at QB and lots of others that are going to need to fill up soon. Things could get funky at the top, especially if the Redskins decide that Haskins is not their guy and get into the QB hunt.
I don’t think they’ll be stupid enough to pass on Chase Young, but it is the Redskins. The Giants at four could be in a prime position to take advantage. You know, if they had a competent GM.
Joe Burrow
Verdict: Bengals
Tua Tagovailoa
There are a lot of signs pointing to the Dolphins. They might have to trade up a bit, but I think they’ll get him. They have the draft capital to move wherever they want. Stay alert Gettleman.
Verdict: Miami
Justin Herbert
His stock rebounded (too soon for stock market analogies?) with a good Pro Day performance. And we know from Daniel Jones that means he’ll be a superstar.
Verdict: San Diego
Jordan Love
This guy had a rough year but threw it really far at the combine. Which according to the Bullcrapean Theory of Analyzing QB Prospects, means slightly less than his Pro Day. Unless he did poorly on the Wonderlic Contemporary Cognitive Ability Test, of course, in which case we all know it means the opposite. If a team has two players ranked exactly the same, they might look at some game film.
Verdict: Carolina
Final Thoughts
As my wife says after sex, that went on longer than it should have. I hope you’re not dizzy from the spinning carousel and my delightful prose.
Come back this summer to make fun of me for getting only two right, counting Burrow. And come back tomorrow for a guy who got a perfect score on the Wonderjerk Test, Angry Ward. Follow us on Twitter at @BenWhit8, @MeetTheMatts, @Matt_McCarthy00, Instagram @MeetTheMatts and like our Facebook page, Meet The Matts.
