The North Pole, Arctic Ocean: Happy December! I hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving! If you went to bed early last night, you missed a heckuva performance by the Giants. ‘The FG attempt by Younghoe Koo was a once-in-a-lifetime moment. The Giants need to clean house, there is way too much rot in the foundation. But enough about them, let’s rant about other NFL stuff, in a bizarre, unpredictable season.
Get the Two Early
When a team is down by 15 late in the game, there is much debate as to whether they should go for two on the first TD or wait until the second. When teams go for two on the first TD, the befuddled announcers often disagree with this decision and complain about analytics. But it is absolutely the right play.
Let’s take the Eagles Bears Black Friday game. The Eagles scored a TD to make it 24-15 with 3:10 left. Troy Aikman didn’t like it and tut-tutted analytics when the conversion failed.
But they have to get a two conversion at some point. If you kick the extra point, get the ball back and score in the closing seconds, and then don’t get the conversion, you lose anyway. The bottom line is you’re probably going to lose if you don’t get the conversion no matter when you try it. But if you try it with 3:10 left, at least you have some time to adjust your plan in knowing you need two more possessions. You can try an onside kick then. Or you can kick a quick FG when you get the ball back, leaving at least enough time for an onside kick and Hail Mary (Madden Football style).
Optically, it looks better to kick the extra point because you stay in one possession range until later in the game. But a loss is a loss whether it’s by nine points or eight. Worrying about optics is like a hockey coach being afraid to pull the goalie too soon, because it looks bad if they give up the quick empty netter. Game over. This way they can hold out hope a little longer. But going for two first is the smarter move if you want to win the game.
Who’s Good, I Don’t Know, the Panthers?
The current number one seeds are now the Patriots, who somehow snuck by the well-oiled Giants machine last night, and the Bears. Can’t say I saw that coming. There’s no telling which teams are good. The poster team for this mayhem is the 7-6 Carolina Panthers.
They started with losses to the Jags and Cards, and it looked like another long season was coming. But a shocking 30-0 rout of the Falcons (ending my knockout pool hopes) turned it around. But then they got walloped by the Pats and it seemed like the Falcons game was an outlier.
Then they won three straight against the Dolphins, Cowboys, and Jets and found themselves at .500. After a whooping by the Bills, they upset the inconsistent Packers in Green Bay and looked like a possible playoff team. But then they lost to the lowly Saints at home, mustering only seven points.
Next, they beat the Falcons again and lost to the Niners to bring them back to even. On Sunday, they took out the Rams, who had looked like one of the league’s best teams. Two TDs on fourth down plays made the difference in that one. This unpredictable team is a bookie’s best friend.
Now they find themselves at 7-6, only a half game behind the Bucs in the NFC South but two games out of a wildcard. Their best chance is the division and they still play the Bucs twice, along with the Saints and Seahawks, after a bye this week. If you assume they beat New Orleans and lose to Seattle, they will likely have to beat the Bucs twice to win the division. The Bucs have a favorable schedule with the Saints, Falcons, and Dolphins, in addition to the two vs Carolina.
It’s a tall task for the Panthers, but anything is possible this season. A Carolina Christmas Miracle!
Happy Holidays. Come back tomorrow for another helping of Angry Ward.
