BLOOMINGBURG, NY – Sports handicapping is a results-based business and quite frankly my 4-8 record out of the NFL gate sucks! I’m not one for excuses but for the most part the first three weeks of any professional football season are most treacherous to the gambler. If you read Big Ben Whitney’s excellent post Friday, we finally have some things to go on as we enter Week #4 and I’m weighing in with wagers on a few teams he mentioned.
FAVORITE The San Di, I mean, Los Angeles Chargers have stumbled to start the season with a 1-2 record after posting a dozen wins last year. They’re also 0-2-1 against the Vegas number so far as the Bolts are proving to be money burners at this juncture. All three of their games have been decided by one score: a six-point win at home versus the Colts, a field goal road loss to the upstart Lions, and last week’s 7-point home loss to the Texans. Back-to-back ells have a way of snowballing in this league but the Chargers are playing the Miami Doldrums in South Beach. Everybody gets well against the Fins, don’t they? Even with the early start that normally dooms West Coast teams there’s some motivation here for a specific unit within the Chargers. Melvin Gordon has ended his holdout but the two other running backs, Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson, will want to prove their mettle one last time as featured ball carriers. The double digit spread is prohibitive but Miami is already looking forward to next week’s bye. Plus I’d love to see the Fish bookend their spotless ’72 season with another perfecto of going winless in ’19 after all those years of popping champagne corks when other NFL teams threaten their fait accompli. The irony of it all would be astounding as the ringleader of these celebrations was the recently departed king of schadenfreude, Nick Buoniconti. The Pick? Los Angeles -15 over MIAMI
UNDERDOG Ben mentioned both the Saints and Cowboys. Something about Dak Prescott turning the corner and the Dallas offense looking complete, while Teddy Bridgewater is limiting the Saints output. Don’t fall for a minute of this thinking. Stats lie. I think the Cowboys rank fifth in rushing defense but consider what the Rams did with C.J. Anderson and not Todd Gurley in last year’s playoffs. In Week #1 Saquon Barkley scorched the “Boys for 100+ before the Gints abandoned the run, while the Redskins and Dolphins have no running game to boot. Here comes a visit to New Orleans who they beat in stunning fashion last year and the tandem of dual threat Alvin Kamara and his counterpart Latavius Murray. Sean Payton will put together a nice game plan that will play to grind out some long drives. Dallas sleepwalked to a victory last week, needing 21 unanswered second half points to beat Miami. There’s something about home dawgs in prime time situations that I’ve always liked backing with some ca$h. Revenge is a dish best served cold and Angry Ward will want Ezekiel Elliott to eat some of that. The Pick? NEW ORLEANS +2.5 over Dallas
OVER One thing I was spot on about heading into the season was the Cleveland Browns whom many, outside of me, had representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. How’s that working out?
If you recollect, the Browns played none of their high end offensive talent in the pre season as I warned the team would be a good under bet early on. Two of the first three contests have gone under and the third went over only by a point, so there’s some truth to what I’m saying about Cleveland. The high-flying Ravens (two of three overs, themselves) are next up for Mayfield & Co. as there’s only one way the Dawg Pounders can stay competitive in this game–by scoring lots of points. The Pick? Cleveland/BALTIMORE OVER 45
UNDER See FAVORITE selection above for the explanation here. Lots of run yards on both sides. The Pick? Dallas/NEW ORLEANS UNDER 47
Good Luck!
