GARDEN STATE – I’m searching for answers re my Free NFL Picks. Last week my UNDER went OVER, the OVER went UNDER, my Favorite lost outright and my Underdog even lost but did cover the spread. This type of performance has become the norm – one I am not accustomed to when it comes to the NFL and the point spread. Two-thirds of the league’s teams are so bad, it’s effecting the bottom line of WINNING!
Let me explain.
Even pathetic NFL teams are a game or two from a .500 record against the number and lining pockets with cash means gambling on poor teams on a regular basis. There are plenty of people who would disagree with me in this argument but even the best of teams do not cover at least two or three times as faves and on top of their losses, means about six fails per year. Simply put, bettors would rather back a strong team hoping against a poor performance than on a sub-par one on a good day.
But that’s where Vegas gets you. Backing these teams means you’re laying a few points more than you should and I’d rather grab a couple more points with a dreg in a handicap. You have my philosophy in a nutshell (if you even care) as I declare most of the NFL sucks so bad they can’t even cover point spreads and have blown my thinking to bits! Don’t believe me, there has been on average five home underdogs per week. If you can’t defend your house you’ll be hard pressed to cover the number.
OVER Monday Night Football games have been scoring duds (the negative theme continues) so far through seven weeks as only one has gone OVER. Historically thought to be an offensive showcase under the prime time lights, even MNF sucks. If you like fantasy football, offense and entertainment, Baltimore at Arizona will be right in your wheelhouse. The Ravens can’t stop anybody and the Cardinals can score on a virgin in church on any Sunday. It will be close but ARIZONA/Baltimore OVER 48.5
UNDER In life, if something looks or sounds to good to be true it is in some way fraudulent. The total on Raiders at Chargers is 47. Yes, the Raiders are an upstart but to count on a wet-behind-the-ears offense to score often enough for this contest to go over is asking a bit much even if San Diego games are always twenty-something to twenty-something. 26-20 sounds about right and gets the money! SAN DIEGO/Oakland UNDER 47
FAVORITE There will be enough gamblers jumping off the Patriots after the Colts scored late for the classic back door cover on Sunday night. The Pats find themselves better than a touchdown favorite yet again but against greater competition (the Jets?) and at home. New England was ripe for the upset last week but this week is Todd Bowles indoctrination to the Jets-Pats rivalry and Belicheat will want to play the bully in this one. NEW ENGLAND -7.5 over New York Jets.
UNDERDOG I will not belabor the point that Atlanta is all that there 5-1 record says. There has recently been a downward pointing arrow in their play and get Titan backup Zach Mettenberger. Sounds easy enough but the game is in Tennessee and the Titans are getting six. You’d be nuts to bet against a kraut during Oktoberfest. PROST! TENNESSEE +6 over Atlanta.