MIDDLETOWN, NY – Eagles versus Patriots. Not exciting to me at all. So instead, I’m altering the normal site of a small gathering among good friends, who also are less than enthusiastic about the last game of the football season. I am spending this unofficial holiday known as Super Big Game Sunday at Elks Lodge #1097 in Orange County (NY) for booze, food, and various raffles, so if you’re in the area let me know and you can join in on the fun as my guest.
Gambling is always a hook for watching football games in general but on this Sunday it is magnified to the nth degree, with all those “prop bets” and box pools, of which I have a few. Included are the dreaded 5-5, 9-5, and 2-9 (4-3 is my only realistic shot at some $$$). Good luck one and all, as I try to handicap Super Bowl #52 for your wagering pleasure.
This game will be compelling once Rob Gronkowski’s head comes rolling off his shoulders or the snap you hear is not from the pretzel bowl but from the television set as Tom Brady gets the Joe Thiesmann treatment from the Eagles defense. The LaGarette Blount angle is a good one to watch, as he plays against his former team and is probably waiting to mow someone down… similar to the touchdown he scored against Angry Ward’s Vikings a few weeks ago.
This is all I’ve really got to look forward to today because I can’t move myself to root for any Philadelphia team or the game’s most disgustingly successful team that cheats for a competitive edge. Thank goodness for bourbon is all I have to say.
The point spread and the line movement tells you all you need to know about betting this game. The Eagles are for real and the oddsmakers and betting public are duly aware. The line opened at 6 and has been bet down to 4.5, as of this writing. Six is a fairly modest number for a New England team to lay as they are usually overpriced by two or three points because of the overwhelming money bet upon them given their normal winning performances over the last decade. It’s commonplace for the favored Patriots point spread to rise rather than dip and so we should take notice.
As I’ve harped on in the past, Las Vegas knows infinitely more than the public due to inside information, trends, analytics and the like. Let’s not forget that the Eagles QB is backup Nick Foles, as Carson Wentz is hurt. Otherwise this line would be even lower than what it is and that is hard to believe. This modest number has gotten even smaller as Eagles money pours in and the smart bettor has taken advantage of the larger six. Normally I shy away from what the gambling public thinks, as they are usually wrong, but I think they’ve got things correct this time.
The Picks? PHILADELPHIA +4.5 OVER NEW ENGLAND and PHIL/NE UNDER 48.5.
That’s it. Feel free to comment below and come back tomorrow for @ByDJEberle – who thinks Nate Sudfeld will be the MVP today…. You can find us on Twitter – @CheesyBruin & @MeetTheMatts, @Matt_McCarthy00 and Instagram @MeetTheMatts, as well. And don’t forget to like our Facebook page, Meet The Matts.