MARLBORO, NY – Thank heaven the NFL regular season is here because I really struggle to write something for this still-chugging sports website being held together by ice cream sticks and rubber bands. If you’re familiar with how I roll on NFL Sundays, it’s what I predict as the best Favorite, Underdog, Over, and Under bets. I’ve been gambling on NFL games since the age of eight and have built a pretty good understanding of what Las Vegas does in posting point-spreads on these NFL games. Kickoff week one with these winners…
FAVORITE: Captain Caveman returns at quarterback for the Colts for the first time in forever and this will be one of the better storylines on Monday morning when Indy looks at the “W” they hung on Cincinnati. Andrew Luck, when given the proper protection, will pick apart a defense with the best of them but keeping him upright is the major problem and source of his throwing shoulder injury. Bang around a quarterback enough and he’ll break down over time. Let’s not forget that Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri is still booting 50+ yard field goals as he approaches the time to register for his AARP card. It seems like this guy has been around since the jump pass and leather helmets, And with the pointspread a whisker under three, I can see the Ancient Leg kicking the game-winner in a tight contest between these AFC also-rans. The pick: INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 over Cincinnati
UNDERDOG: If you take part in Survivor or King of the Hill pools than you are well aware there’s almost always a big Week 1 surprise that knocks out a decent amount of people. For some reason other than my gut telling me, the Packers should be favored by more than the seven points that they are. Vegas has more information at their disposal as they figure out these handicaps–especially for the opening weeks of the season where there are no relevant past performances to study. The Cheeseheads should be favored by 10 against a division rival that Aaron Rodgers usually carves up but the line is only seven. The Bears should be pesky this year and to prove that point they certainly cover the number and maybe walk out of the Sunday Night spotlight with an outright win. The pick: Chicago +7 over GREEN BAY
OVER: I like the Tennessee Titans this year to win the AFC South division and think they have a nice blend of skill players on offense. Marcus Mariota has very reliable targets in TE Delanie Walker and unheralded WR Rishard Matthews. Corey Davis will show his first-round draft pedigree after an injury marred rookie season. And then there’s the offensive line–a unit good enough to pave the way for running backs Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis. Miami on the other hand may be offensively challenged with Ryan Tannehill leading the ‘Fins and that might be the only thing putting this bet in peril. Roll the dice! The pick: Tennessee/MIAMI OVER 45
UNDER: The Patriots are notoriously adept at putting points on the board and thus makes them a popular over bet every week. Am I the only one who gets the feeling that they undergo a philosophy change on offense? They drafted a running back (Sony Michel) in the first round of the draft which they never do. The team likes Rex Burkhead and the rotation at the position. I think they become more of a grinding offense to ensure Tom Brady plays until he’s fifty. Today’s opponent, the Houston Texans, have Deshaun Watson healthy under center and the explosive offense we saw in his seven games played was scary to NFL defenses. Fifty-one points is a lot however and defenses are usually ahead of the offenses early in the season. The pick: Houston/NEW ENGLAND UNDER 51
That’s it for now… Come back tomorrow for DJ Eberle, who like a blind squirrel finding a nut, will get a prediction right this year!