BLOOMINGBURG, NY – Sometimes it’s not that you lose, it’s how you lose. Yeah, some call them “bad beats” and these are the games gamblers remember more than the wins. Case and point, Week #1. 
I told you folks the under (45) was the play in the #Colts – #Chargers tilt. Things looked good with some missed field goals and extra points up until Baltimore Indy ground out a sixteen-play, nine-minute drive that tied the score at 24 and blew that wager up. Today, I’m praying for a little redemption and better luck with these gems. Without further ado, here are Cheesy Bruin’s Free NFL Picks (with a sprinkling of NFL News)
FAVORITE When you’re laying a point it’s basically like picking the winner of the game–and that goes for backing the underdog, too. What I liked about the Bengals last week, and if you had Seattle in a knockout pool along with me you sweated what looked like a mismatch, was Andy Dalton carving up the highly publicized Seattle defense for 400+ air yards. Joe Mixon is questionable but understudy Giovanni Bernard is a more than capable running back for some offensive balance here. The Niners have some running back concerns of their own. San Francisco comes into southern Ohio for the dreaded early start for West Coast teams after an opening week victory against the mistake prone Jameis Winston (two pick 6’s). Ride the home field advantage to some ca$h. The Pick? CINCINNATI -1 over San Francisco
Before we continue, here’s what Jim Mora thinks of us pundits picking games.
UNDERDOG I had the Giants in the dog spot last week and they rolled over and played dead for the Cowboys. I’m dipping into the local water again but this time with the Jets. Let me explain. Sophomore QB Sam Darnold is ill with that kissing disease and Trevor Siemian is the next man up. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing as the Jets will no doubt scale things back for Siemian who is new to the offense. Bottom line is the offensive game plan will keep things simple which means a steady dose of Le’Veon Bell in and out of the backfield and those short Jamison Crowder routes to help take the pressure of the ailing defense with old school, ball control football. As much as I don’t trust an athlete named Trevor, you know I’m not on that Cleveland Browns hype mobile if you read my posts regularly. The points? I’ll definitely take a couple of handfuls with home dogs. Beware the bite of a wounded animal like the Jets and think twice about the Browns in those Knockout Pools. Spoiler alert! The Pick? NEW YORK J-E-T-S +6.5 over Cleveland
OVER The more I think about this selection the more I like it. In fact I’m making this my best bet today. There’s no greater overreaction to what transpires in the opening week of the NFL. The sky is falling if you fail miserably and the sky’s the limit if you surprise some people. When two opponents meet that appear in prime time games the week prior there’s an even greater misconception of what will happen in Week #2. Denver allowed the soap opera that is the Oakland Raiders to control the football in a very boring game otherwise. The Bears play-calling was ridiculous in the curtain riser for the NFL’s 100th year. The game measured up to the excitement of an exhibition game. I trust Matt Nagy to get things rolling and maybe even Joe Flacco to hit some deep balls in this one with a modest number. The Pick? Denver/CHICAGO OVER 40
UNDER My gut isn’t as big as it used to be (I once tipped the scales at 286 lbs.) but when I get one of these feelings it should be taken notice. Rather than expound on this pick just know that two Week 1 QB standouts are facing each other in Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. Jeez, there was a Robert Griffin III sighting last week as the Ravens piled up so many points we were all reminded that RG3 was still in the league. Murray enjoyed some late game heroics in the team’s tie with Detroit. things are going to return to normal for both. There’s been a five point swing in the handicap here as the total opened at 41.5 and ballooned to 46.5 as of this writing. The public is normally wrong in these instances. The Pick? Arizona/BALTIMORE UNDER (way UNDER)46.5
GOOD LUCK ALL!!!
Comment below and come back tomorrow for Short Matt Monday.
