LAS VEGAS, NV –Madonna mi, where has the month of August gone? Where has summer gone? Time is flying by and getting short for the Mets and Yankees in their pursuit of Wild Card births. Meanwhile, the past few days have seen the all important NFL dress rehearsals kickoff and gets us ready for another football season beginning on Thursday, September 8th. Ahead of my mostly stellar Sunday Picks columns, I’m here to help with more gambling advice, 2016 NFL Over/Under Win Totals.
The philosophy employed in selecting these type bets is simple: shy away from the high number win total and concentrate on the middle or lower and pick accordingly. Let’s face it, it’s a lot easier for teams to over- or under-perform around the eight or nine win vicinity and is where you’ll find the most value.
Dallas Cowboys The magic number is 9.5. Nine and a half? Las Vegas always knows more than the public but this has to be one of their more riskier proposals. Consider how frail Tony Romo is these days. The QB is coming off of getting his already balky back banged around in last week’s preseason game and the only way the ‘Boys get to ten wins and ruins the under bet is if this fragile body remains intact for the entire season. It’s impossible to predict injuries but this one is easy. Throw in all the suspensions on defense and all its moving pieces and Dallas becomes reliant on the pass game if playing from behind which will happen when the defense is suspect at best. No-brainer, best bet UNDER 9.5
Tennessee Titans: I’m not a big fan of Head Coach Mike Mularkey, since he employs negative reinforcement as a motivational tool. Never did like authority figures who espouse this practice as it just ain’t my style. Anyhow, it seems as though the Titans will run a very basic brand of football happy enough to take the ten yards within three downs and keep the chains moving with a strong ground attack and short passes. It won’t be entertaining but I think it is enough in a very mediocre AFC South to go OVER 5.5 wins.
Minnesota Vikings: Just like another of Angry Ward’s teams, the New York Mets, his Vikes surprised many people last year when they went 11-5, won the NFC North division and came within a chip shot field goal of the NFC Championship game. But, we know what happened. Now, the bulls eye is on their chest. It’s much easier to be the hunter than the prey especially when you have a lackluster Teddy Bridgewater and his Hamburger Helper gloves throwing the ball. Throw in the fact that the Packers are healthy this year and the Lions will be much improved and it’s hard to see the Purple People Eaters getting to ten wins. UNDER 9.5
Kansas City Chiefs: I like Andy Reid as a coach and think he gets overlooked in the discussion of best coaches in the NFL. He is clearly one of the better field generals of his era. He got to eleven wins last year after a bad start and lost RB Jamaal Charles for the season in game five. Alex Smith is a game manager at quarterback, the team plays good defense (see secondary), and they have a money-leg in kicker Cairo Santos to win close games. Not a bad recipe in getting to ten wins–OVER 9.5.
That’s it. Please comment below and come back tomorrow for DJ Eberle, who is back from Family Vacation. And please follow us on Twitter – @CheesyBruin & @MeetTheMatts and like our Facebook page, Meet The Matts.